Back in February 2024, our firm published a guide to Months Supply of Inventory, often shortened to MSI. That post has been linked in our weekly market update ever since. The market around Asheville has changed a lot since then, and the number itself has moved from the tight conditions of a few years ago to 6.7 months in our most recent weekly reading. So a refresh is overdue.
MSI earns that attention for a simple reason. Prices tell everyone where the market has been. MSI tells everyone where the leverage sits right now, and where the pressure is probably heading next. That is why real estate professionals watch the figure so closely, and why buyers and sellers benefit from understanding the math behind the number.
What the number actually asks
Months Supply of Inventory answers one plain question. If no new homes were listed starting today, how long would the homes already for sale take to sell, at the pace homes have been selling lately?
A high answer means buyers have choices, time, and room to negotiate. A low answer means homes are moving faster than new ones are arriving, and sellers hold the stronger hand. Neither reading is good or bad on its own. The reading only becomes useful when a buyer or seller knows which side of the line a home, a neighborhood, and a price range fall on.
How the calculation works
The math has three steps, and none of them require a degree in statistics.
First, count the homes actively for sale in a defined area at a given moment. Second, work out the sales pace for that same area, meaning the average number of homes selling per month over a recent period. Third, divide the first number by the second.
A round example shows how it works. Suppose an area has 900 homes for sale, and homes there have been selling at an average pace of 150 per month. Divide 900 by 150 and the result is 6.0. At the recent pace, the current supply would take about six months to sell if nothing new came on the market.
Now change only the pace. If sales slow to 100 per month, the same 900 homes become a 9.0 month supply, with no change in the number of listings at all. If sales speed up to 225 per month, the same 900 homes become a 4.0 month supply. That is the part of MSI that gets missed in casual conversation. The figure moves when listings change, and the figure also moves when buyer demand changes. A rising MSI can mean more homes for sale, slower sales, or both at once, and the reason behind the move matters for strategy.
One honest caution belongs here. Sources do not all build the sales pace in exactly the same way. Some use the most recent month, and some average several months to smooth out a single odd week or month. Two reports on the same market can therefore land a few tenths apart without either one being wrong. Professionals check the method before comparing figures from different sources, and compare like with like over time.
The ranges professionals use
The long-standing rule of thumb runs like this. Under about 5 months of supply favors sellers. A supply of about 5 to 6 months is considered balanced, with neither side holding a clear edge. Over 6 months favors buyers.
Those ranges are a convention, not a law of nature, and local conditions can shift where balance truly sits. Still, the ranges give every pricing and offer conversation a shared starting point. When a professional says a market is balanced or leaning toward buyers, MSI is usually the number behind the statement.
Where our market stands right now
Our weekly Canopy MLS numbers put the Asheville Region at 6.7 months of supply for the week reported on November 10. The figure has held in a narrow band all fall, reading 6.6 or 6.7 in each of the past five weekly reports, after sitting between 6.3 and 6.5 during the summer. A year ago this week, the reading was 6.2.
Translated into plain terms, our region sits just past the balanced range and leans modestly toward buyers. The supporting numbers point the same way. Homes in the region took an average of 76 days to sell in the latest report, up from 70 days a month earlier and 70 days a year ago. The regional median sales price held at $410,000 for a second week, down from $420,000 earlier in the fall. In Buncombe County, 74 homes sold last week while 165 sellers reduced a price, and the number of homes for sale in the county eased to 2,127 as some owners took homes off the market for the season.
None of that describes a market in trouble. Sales in Buncombe County have been nearly identical to the same weeks a year ago. The shift is about pace and patience. Buyers have more time than buyers had a year ago, and sellers who price for the market of two years ago are the ones racking up days on market and price reductions.
Why professionals lean on the figure so heavily
Price data looks backward. A closed sale recorded this week usually reflects a contract written weeks earlier, under conditions that may already have changed. MSI is built from homes for sale right now and the recent pace of sales, so the figure tends to move before prices do. A steady climb over several months is often the earliest warning that a market is softening. A steady fall is often the earliest sign that competition is about to heat up. Professionals who watch the direction, not just a single weekly reading, get that warning while there is still time to act on the information.
Pricing is where the figure earns its keep most visibly. In a 3 month market, a seller can price ambitiously and let competing buyers sort out the result. In a market reading close to 7 months, an ambitious price usually buys a long wait, followed by the reductions and stale listing status every seller wants to avoid. Setting the opening price with the current MSI in view is one of the most practical uses of the number, and the same logic runs in reverse for buyers deciding how firm an opening offer needs to be.
Negotiating leverage follows the same pattern. Repairs, closing cost help, timelines, and contingencies all get easier or harder to win depending on how many other options the other side has. MSI puts a number on those options. A buyer shopping in a segment with 8 months of supply has a genuinely different conversation with a seller than a buyer competing in a segment with 3 months of supply, even when the two homes sit in the same county.
The last professional habit is the one that matters most, and the one most often skipped in national headlines. Professionals calculate MSI for a segment, not just for a whole region. A regional reading of 6.7 can hide very different markets underneath. As an illustration, a home priced at $350,000 might be competing in a segment with 4 months of supply, while a home priced at $900,000 in the same county might sit in a segment with 10 months of supply. Both homes would be described by the same regional headline, and the right pricing and negotiating strategy for each one would be completely different. Town, price range, and home type can each tell a separate story, and a careful professional checks the segment a client is actually buying or selling in before giving advice.
How to use the number as a buyer or seller
Start by asking for the MSI that matches the actual search or sale, not just the county figure. Then look at the direction over the past few months rather than a single week, because one week of weather or one holiday can wobble the pace. Finally, read MSI alongside days on market and price reductions. When all three point the same way, as all three do in our region right now, the message is consistent and worth planning around.
Our weekly housing market update publishes the regional MSI figure every week, and the trend through this fall has been steady, patient, and mildly favorable to buyers. Anyone weighing a purchase or a sale this winter is welcome to ask our team to run the number for a specific town, price range, or neighborhood. That narrower reading is where a general market figure turns into a decision a household can actually use.
